Agriculture gross production value – arable land – active population in agricultural sector and energy consumption causality in 76 countries: A dynamic panel data approach

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Mohammed Seghir Guellil


The overall goal of this paper is to investigate the long run and casual relationship between agriculture gross production value (AGPV), arable land (AL), total economically active population in agricultural sector (APA) and total primary energy consumption in the agricultural sector given the historical trend of these variables. For a panel of 76 countries during the period 1991–2012, the paper’s three main findings are that: (i) Neutrality hypothesis is adopted because there is no causality between AL and AGPV.; (ii) APA-led AGPV; (iii) Feedback hypothesis indicates that there are four cases of bidirectional causality between the rest of the variables. Adaptation measures are recommended for both authorities and farmers to ensure food security, such as providing incentives for farmers to adopt more recent technologies, which consumes less energy, land reclamation, steer more employees towards the agricultural sector.

Keywords: Agriculture gross production value, arable land, active population, energy consumption, panel co-integration, panel Granger causality.


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